Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Anatomy of a Blow Up

I am still mad at my final hand in the $2 donkament on PS on Monday night where I played very well and busted in 17th place like a complete idiot. I got the hand history and will now analyze all the mistakes on this hand. I would appreciate comments from you fine readers.

To set the stage, this is a $2 tourney paying 20%. Obviously it's going to be a total insane asylum early and the really big payouts will be at the final table. I have been playing very solid up until now, not taking many chances, switching gears in time and even holding the top spot into and long after the money bubble burst. We are now down to 2 tables and I just managed to get a decent pot and sitting somewhere around third place.

POKERSTARS GAME #10862467532: TOURNAMENT #54722129, $2.00+$0.20 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL XV (1500/3000) - 2007/07/10 - 04:01:29 (ET)
Table '54722129 61' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: franzfranz (79748 in chips)
Seat 3: tonniew777 (132519 in chips)
Seat 4: H*Runner (151290 in chips) - Just got moved to my right when the final two tables merged
Seat 5: Kajagugu (149390 in chips) - I am around 3rd place with an M of 21, only two players at my table have more chips.
Seat 6: Prozdogg (76211 in chips)
Seat 7: VICANO (194652 in chips) - Chip Leader
Seat 8: farva19 (112282 in chips)
Seat 9: JLizard (142463 in chips)
franzfranz: posts the ante 300
tonniew777: posts the ante 300
H*Runner: posts the ante 300
Kajagugu: posts the ante 300
Prozdogg: posts the ante 300
VICANO: posts the ante 300
farva19: posts the ante 300
JLizard: posts the ante 300
Kajagugu: posts small blind 1500
Prozdogg: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Kajagugu [Kc Ks] - Finally a great hand. I hope I get some action here.
VICANO: folds - Chip leader folds, damn. Or good?
farva19: folds
Kajagugu said, "62o lol" - H*Runner had raised from the SB on the previous hand and I folded my crap hand.
JLizard: folds
franzfranz: folds
tonniew777: folds
H*Runner: raises 3000 to 6000 - Min raise from the guy who stole my BB. I got you now sucker!
Kajagugu: raises 6000 to 12000 - What should I do here? I decide to re-raise to 4xBB, trying to represent a weak re-steal. Or trying to represent general weakness. The thing is I don't really have a plan. I need to think out a plan before a serious hand like this. I have to work on that. Would you re-pop it more? Out of position? I am not sure what the right play is here. I obviously wanted a call without giving away too much info.
Prozdogg: folds
H*Runner said, "just so you know I wasn't being a jerk" - He showed A8 suited. Sign of things to come? I have no info on him as we only played two hands so far. All I can tell is he likes suiteded hands and will play an Ace. But that is likely the range at this stage of the tournament.
H*Runner said, "lol"
H*Runner: calls 6000 - I guess what I would have liked more was a re-raise from him so I could push and be done with the hand, but he is getting good odds to call here and he does.
*** FLOP *** [6s 7s As] - This is an awful flop for me. There's an Ace out there, there's a flush out there. But I have the nut flush draw, which is good and bad cause it could cost me a lot to draw to it.
Kajagugu: bets 12000 - I could have checked here to see what he does. But once again, I don't really have a plan. Even if I check and he bets I would need to think about calling with my nut flush. I guess the lead-in bet is ok. The pot is a little over 29K so if he is drawing to a flush, he is drawing to a worse flush than I am.
H*Runner: calls 12000 - Smooth call. Not sure what to make of it. Possibly a flush draw? If he hit his ace, he would not smooth call here, but rather raise to see if his Ace is good, right? Why give me a chance to catch my draw? Or maybe he has an Ace and puts me on a weaker or stronger Ace? Maybe he's got an AXs hand with a string spade kicker?
*** TURN *** [6s 7s As] [2h] - This should be a blank for both of us.
Kajagugu: bets 30000 - I bet a little over half the pot here. I have no idea why I made this bet. The only thing I can think of is that the turn card hasn't helped anyone, so if I was ahead or behind on the flop, I am still ahead or behind on the turn and this would be a good way to find out. What would you do here?
H*Runner: raises 30000 to 60000 - This is not what I wanted obviously. He could be making a move here. This should be the time to either push or fold and in hindsight I should have folded here.
Kajagugu: calls 30000 - But the pot is 143K now and it costs me only 30K to call and try to hit my nut flush. Or I could still be ahead. I have to at least call, right? Let's count the outs - 9 spades and 2 kings for 11 outs if he doesn't already have a flush or only 7 outs if he has a flush. That would give me around 22% or 14% to win the hand. My pot odds are very close at around 21% (30k/143k). But the implied odds are much higher, because if I do catch the nut flush I will be the dominant chip leader. I have to make this call. Right?
*** RIVER *** [6s 7s As 2h] [3c] - another blank. This would only be a scare card if my opponent was playing 54 and just made a straight.
Kajagugu: bets 65090 and is all-in - What the hell was I thinking, here? This is the real blow up. And had I thought about it for a little longer I would probably not made this stupid move. I will probably only get called by a hand that beats me and I am now risking my tournament life since my opponent has me slightly covered. Did I tell a good story with my betting up until now? The nuts here would be a made flush. Have I played it like a made flush? I could have, but not likely unless I flopped the nut flush. I probably don't have 54 either for a straight. So any Ace, made flush, two pair or funky straight beat me. Do I get called by a worse hand than mine, probably not, right?
H*Runner: calls 65090 - Insta-call. This is not good although I have seen players insta-call with nothing as late as 5 minutes ago, so you never know. But I don't think this is good.
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Kajagugu: shows [Kc Ks] (a pair of Kings)
H*Runner: shows [8s Js] (a flush, Ace high) - Nice flop catch. FU PS RNG!!!
H*Runner collected 303580 from pot
H*Runner said, "gg"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 303580 | Rake 0
Board [6s 7s As 2h 3c]
Seat 1: franzfranz folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: tonniew777 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: H*Runner (button) showed [8s Js] and won (303580) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 5: Kajagugu (small blind) showed [Kc Ks] and lost with a pair of Kings
Seat 6: Prozdogg (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: VICANO folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: farva19 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: JLizard folded before Flop (didn't bet)

So to summarize:
1) I could have made a bigger pre-flop re-raise but I tried to get some value from my premium hand.
2) I should have been done with the hand after my flop bet was called.
3) My turn bet was a big mistake. I should have checked and hoped for a free card.
4) My call after the re-raise was borderline. I shouldn't have been in this situation but my opponent gave me just the right odds to make the call.
5) My river shove was a dumb play. There is no way I will win if I don't learn to stop making these kinds of moves.

So there. What do you think? What would you have done differently? What do you think of the way I analyzed my play here?

2 comments:

OReally said...

Your analysis method is good. I try to go through the same process mentally for key hands. I think I will start writing it down. Should be much more effective.

I agree with bigger raise preflop. 3x his bet is what I would have done.

I also agree with 2 & 3. I think the call was also a mistake, not borderline. That deep into the tournament, with the board the way it is, I'd give it up.

The river shove was suicide. It is the kind of thing that I am also working on. I have made some really stupid shoves late in tournaments. Like you say, have to stop if we expect to win.

BTW, it if haven't read _The Full Tilt Poker Strategy Guide_ I highly recommend it. Andy Bloch's chapter on pre-flop play is especially interesting (at least to me) given his hand selection guide. Far more aggressive than most others. First in on the button, with antes, he advocates raising with 59% of all hands. J8s is well within that range.

I really like your blog.

BrainMc said...

Nice job in the Mook last night. I see the "donkey" aka KJ did alright for you. Way to go bud. I had started calling KJ, "The Kaj" not because you're a donkey but because the letters fit so well. I'm going to try to get Mike G in these games so maybe we can have some Atlanta versus west coast action.